As the Ancaster Real Estate Market Heads into Balanced Territory in May--What's Next?

What a Crazy Year 2017 has been so far. Rapid Price Acceleration, Heated Bidding Wars, Tight Inventory Levels, the “GTA Effect”, and Buyer Speculation fueled a very “frothy” market in Ancaster. Buyers were exhibiting what Alan Greenspan described as “Irrational Exuberance” bidding home prices beyond levels supported by economic fundamentals. Well it looks like the “buyer frenzy” may finally be over as the Ancaster Real Estate Market moves into more balanced territory. In May, inventory levels started to flood the market giving buyers some reprieve from the chaos with more time and choice.

Increased inventory levels are possibly due to Seller’s looking to take advantage of the price increases and cash out as concerns over what effect the Ontario governments new housing measures, including a 15% non-resident speculation tax to be imposed on buyers in the Great Golden Horseshoe area, may have on the market. In the Greater Toronto area, it appears these measures have already cooled the red hot housing market where the average sale price was down 6.2% in May 2017 from the previous month and the number of sales was down 12 % during that period however overall prices are still up 15% since last May according to TREB statistics.

Keep in mind that this data can be somewhat misleading because of the many variables in average sale price from month-to-month so a short term change does not necessarily indicate a long term trend. In Ancaster, for example, the monthly average sale price was $841,736 in April 2017 and $797,167 in May 2017 which is a drop of 5.2%. However, when comparing year-to-date sales from the end of December 2016 to year-to-date sales to the end of May 2017 the average sale price in Ancaster has actually increased 20.0% overall since the beginning of the year. Further, when comparing the year-to-date average sale price from May 2016 to May 2017 Ancaster has seen a staggering 29% price gain according to Real Estate Association Hamilton Burlington RAHB MLS Statistics.

So where is the market heading now? Of course it’s difficult to predict with any certainty where average home prices are heading in the long term. Will there be a correction in home prices? My own personal opinion is that price appreciation—growth—will stagnate in the short to medium term, and there is evidence that this is already happening, with the possibility of a slight correction. However, even if there is a slight pricing correction the overall net gain in values since last year will likely remain quite positive.